Investor documents
Market Sizing (TAM / SAM / SOM)
Bottom-up and top-down views of your market with honest assumptions.
Example output
Sample document
Full-depth fictional StartupDrafter example — the same section structure, narrative quality, and conservative break-even economics you get from your own plan. Industry-standard length for review before you buy. View only, no download.
market-sizing.md
View onlyMarket Sizing — StartupDrafter
Methodology
Bottom-up from founder search intent and accelerator application volume, cross-checked with top-down new business formation stats. All figures directional — pre-seed planning is fragmented and under-reported.
TAM — Total Addressable Market
Definition: New technology-enabled businesses globally each year that may require formal business planning or investor materials for fundraising, grants, or accelerator programs.
Estimate: ~2.4M businesses/year
Sources / logic:
- OECD + national business registration trends for "professional, scientific, and technical" and software-enabled categories
- Assume ~40% of new tech businesses seek external capital or structured programs within 24 months
- Not all will pay for software — TAM is addressable need, not revenue
SAM — Serviceable Addressable Market
Definition: English-speaking pre-seed founders who actively search for business plan templates, AI plan generators, pitch deck help, or comparable commercial-intent keywords annually.
Estimate: ~420,000 founders/year
Logic:
- US/UK/EU/ANZ English-speaking founder population preparing first raise
- ~18% show commercial intent signals (template marketplaces, "business plan software" search volume proxies)
- Excludes enterprise intrapreneurship and non-software categories in base SAM
SOM — Serviceable Obtainable Market (36 months)
Definition: Paid projects StartupDrafter can realistically win with bootstrap GTM (SEO + community + light partnerships), no paid acquisition.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Paid projects (36 mo) | 4,800 |
| Blended ASP | €32 |
| Cumulative revenue | ~€154k |
| Monthly run-rate exit (mo 36) | ~€14k |
Assumptions:
- Qualified organic + community visits grow from ~800/mo to ~6,500/mo by month 36
- Checkout conversion on qualified traffic: 2.2% → 3.0% as samples and testimonials compound
- No paid ads in base case
- Churn N/A — one-time project purchase; repeat purchases from new ventures not modeled
Sensitivity
| Variable | Base | Bear | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conversion (qualified) | 2.5% avg | 1.5% | 3.5% |
| 36-mo projects | 4,800 | 2,900 | 7,200 |
| Cumulative revenue | €154k | €93k | €230k |
Why SOM Is Conservative
- Does not assume viral growth or paid CAC efficiency
- Does not model enterprise or agency channel
- Assumes single-founder purchase per venture
Strategic Implication
Market is large enough for a focused bootstrap business; winner likely owns SEO intent clusters and proof of output depth rather than raw model access.
What it is
TAM/SAM/SOM with sources and sanity checks. The goal is defensible order-of-magnitude, not fantasy billions.
Why it matters
Markets are easy to overstate; investors remember inconsistent TAM stories. Defensible sizing builds credibility and sets strategic boundaries.
Who it's for
Fundraising founders, strategists sizing new segments, and board conversations about opportunity ceiling.
What you'll find inside
- Definition of the market boundary
- Top-down and bottom-up estimates
- Sensitivity notes and citations to update
When to use it
Fundraising narrative, board discussions, and strategic pivots.
After you generate it
Footnote sources in decks, stress-test assumptions when pricing changes, and align the revenue model narrative to the same market boundaries.